基于四十二国样本的工业化、城市化与耕地变化机制研究

Study on Industrialization,Urbanization and Mechanism of Arable Land Conversion Based on 42 Countries Samples

为了深入研究工业化、城市化与耕地变化之间的相互影响及工业化、城市化对耕地变化的相对贡献,从世界200多个国家中选取42个国家和27年(1982—2008)的时间段作为样本,运用PVAR模型进行实证分析。结果表明,工业化、城市化的发展是耕地减少的原因之一,耕地增加、城市化发展对工业化发展具有促进作用,耕地增加、工业化发展可以促进城市化发展。从方差分解的结果看,工业化、城市化对耕地减少作用有限,工业化、城市化的快速发展不是耕地面积加速减少的必然条件;耕地自身冲击对耕地变化贡献占近70%,说明耕地变化的主要驱动力来自于工业化、城市化发展之外。

This paper explain the mutual function of industrialization and urbanization to arable land changing, and analyze the contribution of industrialization and urbanization to arable land changing. Forty-two countries and twenty-seven years are selected from all countries as the samples and PVAR model method is used to the study. The result show that industrialization and urbanization are the reason of the arable land reduction, arable land in- creasing and urbanization development push ahead on industrialization, and arable land increasing and industrializa- tion development push ahead on urbanization. According to the result of variance decomposition, the contribution of industrialization and urbanization to the arable land reduction is limited. The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization are not necessary condition of the arable land reduction, the contribution of arable land itself changing get up to about seventy percent, these show that the main driving force of arable land changing comes from other aspects.