基于“污染天堂”假说检验的湖南经济增长与环境综合质量关系研究

The Relationship between Hunan Economic Growth and Environment Quality Based on the“Pollution Heaven”Hypothesis

选取湖南省1990—2010年经济增长、对外贸易以及环境综合质量的时间序列数据,建立经济增长与环境污染水平的计量模型,检验湖南省环境综合质量的变动轨迹。结果表明:研究期内,湖南省环境污染的变动轨迹大致呈底部平滑的正"U"型曲线,由于湖南经济增长对环境始终存在负的规模效应与正的技术效应,环境曲线的变动轨迹主要取决于经济增长的结构效应,因此,实现产业结构的升级,合理配制轻重工业的比重,在经济增长与环境效益中寻求平衡,是湖南改善环境质量与经济发展关系的关键;此外,无论从FDI还是出口贸易的角度来看,"污染天堂"假说在湖南均不成立。

Constructing the comprehensive indicator of overall environmental quality based on the single pollution indexes, then using the time series data of economic growth and foreign trade as well as environmental quality during 1990--2010 to establish econometrics models to inspect the trajectory of Hunan environmental quality changes. The results shows that： there exists ＂U-shaped＂ curve in Hunan with the smooth bottom, there are always negative scale effects and positive technology effects, changes in environmental curve trajectory mainly depend on struc- tural effects of economic growth, therefore, upgrading the industrial structure, configuration of a reasonable propor- tion between the heavy industry and the light industry, and finding a balance between environment and economic deve!opment are key to improve the relationship between environmental quality and economic development. In addition, the＂ pollution haven＂hypothesis does not hold in Hunan both from the point of FDI and exports.