陕西省CO_2排放强度的变动趋势及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Trend and Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity in Shaanxi Province

以中国首批低碳试点地区之一的陕西省为研究对象,在测算其历年碳排放量的基础上,分析了碳强度的变动趋势,发现1978—2011年间陕西省碳强度的变动趋势呈现"N"型曲线;对影响碳强度的因素进行研究,基于Kaya恒等式,采用对数均值迪氏指数法进行短期分析,基于STIRPAT模型,利用协整方程进行长期分析。结果表明,能源效率的提高是碳强度波动性下降的主要和直接决定因素,且能源结构的调整也有利于碳强度降低。

In the paper, we take Shaanxi Province, the first batch of low-carbon pilot areas in China, as the research object. Based on the calculation of its annual carbon emissions, we analyze the intensity trend of changes in carbon dioxide emissions and we found that during 1978--2011 the trend of changes in carbon dioxide emission intensity in Shaanxi Province shows the shape of N-type curve. Due to Kaya identity, we introduce LMDI to discuss the short-term influence factors of carbon dioxide emission intensity, while we recommend cointegrating equation to conduct long-term analysis of it in view of the STIRPAT model. It is the improvement of energy efficiency that mainly and directly cause fluctuant drop of carbon dioxide emission intensity. Meanwhile restructuring of energy also contributes to carbon dioxide emissions intensity reduction.