中国主要农产品虚拟水流动格局形成机理研究

Virtual Water Flow Patterns Embedded in Major Crops in China

通过构建中国主要农产品虚拟水区际间流量关系矩阵,估算2007-2010年我国国内区际间主要农产品虚拟水流量格局,结果表明:东北和黄淮海是我国虚拟水的最主要调出区,东南和华南是最主要的调入区,我国主要农产品的虚拟水流动趋势仍然是由贫水的北方流向富水的南方地区。为定量研究虚拟水流动格局的形成机理,采用PLS模型从人口、农业资源、农业生态环境、经济、科技和文化、交通、虚拟水增量及虚拟水净流量等8个方面对我国主要农产品虚拟水流动格局的形成机理进行分析,研究结果表明:人口通过农业资源影响虚拟水增量进而影响虚拟水的流动;经济主要是通过交通及技术和文化影响虚拟水的流动;虚拟水流动会反作用于农业生态环境。

With population growth and rapid economic development, food and water security problems in China are becoming increasingly prominent. The concept of‘virtual water’connects water resources and food security. Within the virtual water strategy, water-shortage countries and regions can buy water intensive crop products from water-rich countries and regions, especially grain, to obtain water and food security. Virtual water flow is influenced by regional natural resources and social economic development, crop production conditions and technological progress, national policy and the ecological environment. Quantitative research in this area is needed to reveal the influence of various factors on virtual water flow patterns. Here, we explore virtual water interregional flow relationships for main crop products in China and estimate virtual water flow from 2007-2010. We found that northeast China and Huanghuaihai are the main virtual water exporting regions, the southeast and south are main access areas, and the virtual water flow for main crops is still from northern to southern China. Using a PLS model, the formation mechanism of virtual water flow is analyzed across crop resources, crop ecological environment, economy, technology and culture, traffic and virtual water increment. We found that population affects virtual water increment through crop resources. The economy mainly affects virtual water flow through transport and technology and culture.