丰枯遭遇对引汉济渭受水区水资源配置的影响研究

Influence of Rich-Poor Precipitation on Water Resource Allocation of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project

河湖水系连通对提高我国水资源统筹调配能力具有重要的意义。然而,河湖水系连通水资源配置是一个十分复杂的系统优化问题,影响因素众多,传统水资源配置技术和方法不能完全满足河湖水系连通水资源配置的需求,特别是不能充分考虑丰枯遭遇对河湖水系连通水资源配置的影响。本文选择引汉济渭工程作为河湖水系连通典型案例,重点研究丰枯遭遇对河湖水系连通水资源配置的影响和重要性。通过对比传统水资源配置结果和基于丰枯遭遇分析的水资源配置结果,可以得到以下认识:①相比传统水资源配置,基于丰枯遭遇分析的水资源配置方案对不同情景下的总可供水量计算更加合理,提高了连通区域的水资源统筹调配能力;②相比传统水资源配置,基于丰枯遭遇分析的水资源配置方案更加灵活,增强了水资源管理对气候变化的适应能力。

Water resource shortages are a severe problem in China. For example,the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources is uneven and does not match the population,land resource and economic situation across the country. In order to change the severe water resource shortage situation and improve the ability of water resources allocation,the Interconnected River System Network （IRSN） project was formally proposed in the 12th Five-Year Planning program. However, tater resources allocation methods often do not consider the rich-poor precipitation encountering problem. This paper uses the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Water Transfer Project in Shaanxi as a typical IRSN case study and a multi-objective optimal water resource allocation model and Copula function to generate traditional water resource allocation results based on rich-poor precipitation. Through comparison of two water resource allocation methods,we found that water resource allocation based on rich-poor precipitation analysis provides more reasonable total available water supply estimation and improves the capacity of water resource allocation. Further,compared with traditional water resource allocation,the water resource allocation based on rich-poor precipitation encountering analysis provides more flexible water resource allocation schemes that enhance the ability to adapt to climate change.