煤炭消费、碳排放与区域经济绩效——基于13个煤炭消费大省的实证研究

Coal Consumption,Carbon Emission and Regional Economic Performance Across 13 Major Provinces

煤炭高消耗省份逐年增加的煤炭消费和碳排放,是促进还是阻碍了区域经济绩效?本文基于13个煤炭消费大省1995-2010年的投入产出面板数据,利用Malmquist指数法,实证测算这些地区的环境全要素生产率指数,以考察这些区域的经济绩效状况。结果发现,1995-2010年期间,国内13个煤炭消费大省的经济绩效普遍得到了持续改善;而且,煤炭消费规模较大地区的经济绩效增速相对快于煤炭消费规模较小地区,煤炭消费增速较快地区的经济绩效增速相对快于煤炭消费增速较慢地区;此外,主要煤炭消费区域的环境全要素生产率增长主要是由技术进步引起的,效率贡献非常有限。这意味着,政府在分解节能减排目标时,应适度允许煤炭消费大省在节能减排目标方面的灵活性;同时,煤炭消费大省经济绩效提升的重点在于理顺要素市场配置机制,提高资源利用效率。

In China,coal is the main energy source and accounts for 70% of total energy consumption. Here,we use panel data（capital,labor,energy,carbon emission and GDP）for 13 major provinces and their coal consumption from 1995 to 2000. The environmental total factor productivity（ETFP）of these regions was then calculated using the Malmquist Productivity Index （MPI）. The results indicate that the economic performance of the 13 provinces improved during the sample period and the increasing consumption of coal for these major provinces has promoted their economic performance. The performance of major coal-consumers exceeds smaller ones,and regions with faster coal-consumption gain better economic performance than slower coal-consumption regions. Among the 13 provinces,the better performers in economic efficiency were Inner Mongolia,Jiangsu,Shanxi and Shandong. The average growth rate for ETFP was 5%, of which technological progress accounts for 4.6% and technical efficiency 0.4% . These results imply that larger provinces should estimate optimal inputs of capital,labor,and energy and carbon emission scientifically. Provinces with coal consumption should also focus on market allocation mechanisms of factor utilization and optimize resource allocation for the improvement of economic performance.