河南省山丘区小流域洪水预报系统研究及应用

Research and Application of Flood Forecasting System at Small Watershed in Mountainous Areas of Henan Province

采用数字高程模型、分布式水文预报模型、DEM技术、计算机仿真计算等信息技术,对河南省山丘区小流域洪水预报方法进行了分析研究。把无资料小流域单位线、无资料河段洪水演算模型参数估算方法用于洪水过程模拟,解决了山丘地区无资料小流域的洪水预报问题;采用先进的分布式交互仿真计算技术构建洪水过程计算模型,实现了连续、实时推演,通过高速、稳定的计算保证了洪水预报的时效性;以DEM数据为基础,实现了省级行政区划范围内的小流域划分、小流域单位线的确定,是大尺度数字流域构建技术的突破;系统对实时洪水预报、断面告警、预估降雨模拟、水库调度等多种应用模式进行了综合集成。实际应用结果表明,该系统在豫西山区2000年、2011年、2012年暴雨洪水灾害防御中发挥了重要作用,取得了显著的经济社会和生态效益。

The method of flood forecasting at small watershed in mountainous areas is analyzed by using digital elevation model,distributed hydrological forecasting model,DEM and computer simulation.This paper solves flood forecasting problem of the mountainous areas in the small watershed without data by applying the unit line and flood routing model parameter estimation method to simulate the flood process;advanced distributed interactive simulation technology is used to build the flood process calculation model,which could realize continuous real time deduction and ensure the flood forecasting timeliness by high speed and stable calculation.Based on the DEM data,this paper determines the scope of the division and unit line at small watershed within the scope of administrative divisions at the provincial level,which breaks through the large scale digital watershed construction technology.The system has comprehensively integrated the various application modes of real-time flood forecasting,section alarm,rainfall simulation,reservoir operation and etc..Practical application results show that this system plays an important role in the prevention of rainstorm and flood disasters in the western mountains in Henan Province in 2000,2001 and 2012,which achieves remarkable economic,social and ecological benefits.