务川沙坝变形监测回归分析

Deformation Monitor Regression Analysis of the Shaba Hydropower Station in Wuchuan

根据沙坝水电站的工程概况及大坝变形监测项目布置,对其下闸蓄水初期和运行期的变形监测资料进行整理,研究该拱坝的变形规律,并按照多元回归分析方法对大坝正倒垂线的位移变形趋势进行模拟,得到位移变形的回归方程以及水压、温度和时效因子对坝体变形的影响规律。结果表明:所得回归方程与实测曲线拟合良好,复相关系数较大,残差较小;拱坝变形主要受水位变化影响;温度位移分量在坝体变形中所占比例最大,即变形量主要受温度因子分量影响;时效变化对坝体变形的影响逐渐趋于平稳;在水压、温度、时效因子的作用下,该拱坝变形正常,符合一般规律。所建立的模型能有效模拟拱坝的变形规律,为拱坝的运行管理提供依据。

According to the deformation monitoring project layout and project overview of the Shaba Hydropower Station,this paper analyzed the deformation monitoring data of impoundment initial period and run time,studied deformation law of the arch dam,simulated the trend of orthographic vertical line and inverted vertical line displacement by multiple regression analysis,and obtained the regression equation of displacement deformation and the affect for displacement deform of dam by pressure,temperature and aging factor.The results show that the regression equation and the actual measurement curve are in good agreement,and multiple correlation coefficient is large and residuals is smaller;main influences to dam deformation are the changes of water level;the largest proportion of deformation is temperature component,and the main influence to the amount of deformation is temperature factor;the influence to deformation by aging changes is tend to smooth;under the action by pressure,temperature and aging,the dam deformation is normal,consistent with the general rule.The model can effectively simulate the deformation law and provide basis for the operation and management of arch dam.