基于证据理论的军械装备修理能力认证评估方法

Evaluation Method on Repair Capacity Certificate of Ordnance Equipment Based on Evidence Theory

借鉴AHP法建立军械装备修理能力认证评估体系,并构建其递阶层次模型。确立体系各级指标权重中,引入D-S证据理论对多专家意见进行融合;综合考虑专家的权重和不确定度,并采用单值转换分布概率算法对专家评价分数进行换算,改进了AHP法受专家经验、知识限制,主观性强等缺点。经算例分析,该方法能准确可靠地评价型号装备修理机构的修理能力,减少专家主观因素对评估结果的影响。

With the inspiration of AHP（the Analytic Hierarchy Process）,a hierarchy model on repair capacity certificate system of ordnance equipment is established.The D-S evidence theory was provided for the in-formation fusion of different experts,combining the experts＇ weight and uncertainties,so as to improve on the restraint by experts＇ experience and knowledge and high subjectivity,and solve some evaluation problems such as the judgment matrix consistency,and the value between index attribute and membership degree.The examples presented in this paper have been clearly indicated that the model is helpful and useful in practice,and abate the force of experts＇ subjective factors.