基于LMDI模型的中国海洋产业就业变化驱动效应测度与机理分析

Research on the Driving Effects Measurement and Mechanism Analysis of Marine Industrial Employment Change in China

通过构建就业变化的LMDI分解模型,测度了1990—2011年驱动中国海洋产业就业变化的规模效应、结构效应与技术效应,对海洋产业就业变动的驱动机理进行分析,并研究了中国海洋经济与中国国民经济就业变化的差异。结果表明,海洋产业就业的变化是规模效应、结构效应与技术效应三种因素共同作用的结果。其中规模效应为正向驱动力,而结构效应、技术效应基本上为负向驱动力。因此,应做大做强海洋经济,完善产业结构,发挥科技补偿机制,统筹海陆发展,使海洋产业更有效地吸纳劳动力。

Employment problem has become a center issue which is closely connected with economy development and social stability. The rapid development of marine economy can relieve the employment pressure. The LMDI model, based on the extended Kaya identity, which can depict the employment change was applied to measure the scale effect, structure effect and technical effect of marine industry employment change from 1990-2011, and the driving mechanism of marine industry employment change was analyzed, this paper also discuss the difference of employment change in marine economy and national economy. The results show that the employment change of marine industry was the result of combined effect of the three factors mentioned above, in which the scale effect is positive driving force and others are basically negative. Therefore, we should make the marine economy bigger and stronger , optimize the industrial structure, fully develop the compensation function of science and technology, coordinate the development of land and sea, and our country can achieve sustainable development of the marine industry employment.