城市化推动我国国内旅游发展的时空动态分析

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of the Relationship between Domestic Tourism Development and Urbanization in China

城乡二元结构导致国内旅游的二元结构,城市居民收入高、国内出游率高、人均旅游花费高,是国内旅游发展一个结构性驱动力。以1994—2011年时间序列数据和2007年30个省区截面数据,分析了城市化对我国国内旅游发展的影响,结果表明:1982—2011年,随着城市化水平的提高,国内旅游呈现阶段性增长,以1992年和2004年为界可划分为三个阶段;1994年以来的统计数据显示,城市化率与国内出游率、居民人均旅游花费呈线性关系。依据回归方程预测,2020年城市化率60%时,国内出游率将达到298%,居民人均旅游花费达到1 957元;依据2006—2007年全国30个省区截面数据,各省区城市化率与国内出游率呈直线关系,据此将我国30个省区划分为四种类型,分别是高城市化—高出游率,高城市化—低出游率,低城市化-高出游率,低城市化—低出游率。研究可为分析各地区城市化与国内旅游发展提供了新的依据。

As a result of the dual structure in urban and rural economy, there have being an obvious binary structure in domestic tourism. Based on the time-series date from 1994 to 2011and panel data of 30 provinces in China, this article reviews the relationship between the urbanization and domestic tourism development. The results show that the domestic tourism improved gradually, along with the improvement of urbanization in last 28 years. In 1992, 2004 as the boundary line, can be divided into 3 stages. The urbanization with domestic travel rate and per capita cost reflect linear relationship in the view of time-series from 1994, which means that urbanization plays a significant role in the development of domestic tourism. The urbanization rate will be 60%, the domestic tourism rate and per-capita travel expenses will be 298%, 1 957 yuan in 2020, meanwhile the domestic tourists and tourism income will be 4.5 million, 2 935.6 million. The urbanization and domestic tourism development shows linear relationship by the use of panel date of 30 provinces in 2007, meaning that the promotion function on domestic tourism cased by urbanization shows strong. For further analysis, we divide the provinces into 4 types： High urbanization-high travel rate, High urbanization-bottom travel rate, Bottom urbanization - high travel rate and Bottom urbanization-bottom travel rate, which will be an important basic for analyzing and promoting the development of domestic tourism scientifically.