论东亚经济复苏的制约因素及前景

On Restrictive Factors and Prospects of Economic Recovery in East Asia

1999年东亚经济出现了复苏迹象 ,国际社会对东亚经济有 W、V和 U型三种不同走向的判断。东亚经济复苏离不开自身的努力和国际环境的改善 ,目前这两个方面有不少因素在发生积极的变化 ,但同时也还存在着许多制约因素。展望东亚经济发展的前景 ,其经济走向在总体上和短期内不太可能呈现出 W型和 V型而应当是 U型的。只要自身素质和国际环境进一步改善 ,东亚经济会逐步加快复苏 ,实现稳定增长。

Signs of economic recovery appeared in East Asia in 1999.Experts argue that there may be three different economic trends in that area-W,V or U.The recovery is based on two aspects:the self efforts and the improvement of international surroundings.Though their positive changes are taking place,there are still many restrictive factors.Looking ahead into the prospects we can see that U will be the main trend in a short time.With further inprovement of self conditions and the international surroundings the recovery will be quickened gradually and steady increase will be realized.