中国近期通货膨胀影响因素的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Influencing Factors of the Recent Inflation in China

从成本、需求、流动性过剩及公众预期等视角,通过构建静态多元线性回归模型、动态向量自回归(VAR)模型,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法,研究了2008年金融危机后我国通货膨胀的主要特征及形成原因。实证结果表明,我国通货膨胀同时具有成本推动和需求拉动的特征,结构性因素显著,流动性过剩对CPI的影响显著性较小,公众预期的影响力逐步加强并据此提出了相关政策建议。

From the perspective of cost,demand,excess liquidity and public expectation,this paper studies main characteristics and causes of the inflation in China after the financial crisis of 2008 by building static Multiple Linear Regression Model and dynamic Vector Auto regression Model,and applying the Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Method econometrics methods etc.The empirical results show that,China＇s inflation is both cost-push and demand-pull in recent years;structural factors are significant;excess liquidity has less significant influence on CPI while the influence of the public expectations is gradually strengthening.Finally relevant policy suggestions are put forward.