中国潜在自贸区伙伴的选择战略:基于贸易效应的局部均衡分析

China’s Selection Strategy of Potential FTA Partners:A Partial Equilibrium Analysis Based on Trade Effect

本文利用HS6位码产品数据,使用局部均衡分析方法计算了中国与潜在FTA伙伴国的贸易效应及其产品分布,据此提出了中国潜在FTA伙伴国的选择战略和可行路径。分析结果表明最佳路径首选巴西作为谈判对象,其次选择俄罗斯作为谈判对象,再次选择加拿大作为谈判对象。此外,本文的建议还需要结合参考其他因素(如政治外交关系等)做出决策。

This paper processes HS 6-digit disaggregated data with the partial equilibrium methodology to evaluate China＇ s trade effect with its potential FTA partner countries and the corresponding product distribution. The selection strate- gy for China to choose FTA partners is then proposed in this paper. Specifically, Brazil is recommended as the most preferred choice for China to engage, fol- lowed by Russia and then Canada. Besides, this paper stresses that such a selec- tion strategy should be made with regard to other influential factors such as polit- ical and diplomatic ties.