客户价值计算中最近购买时间的意义研究

Study on the Significance of Recency in Computing Customer Value

最近购买时间（Ibcency）作为客户价值的重要构成要素，在众多计算客户价值的文献中被实证验证过或被直接拿来应用，特别是在研究客户当前和未来购买行为的文献中。本文主要是基于Schmittlein等学者在其研究过程中对客户生存周期和购买行为的假设，结合随机过程知识，从理论上推导出含有生存周期的购买行为依然具有马尔可夫性，即通常所说的无后效。从而在理论上证明了最近购买时间的重要性，并运用数据验证了该结论。

Recency, as the important element of customer value, has been empirically verified or directly used in many papers, especially in papers of studying customers＇ current and future purchase patterns. On the basis of the hypothesis about customer lifecycle and purchase behavior proposed by Schmittlein et.al and with the theory of stochastic process, this paper deduced theoretically that customer purchase behavior with lifecycle still has Markov property, which is so-called ＂memorylessness＂. Overall, this paper proves the significance of Recency in theory and verifies the conclusion by data.