二次设备的通用多因素风险评估模型与求解

General Multifactor Risk Assessment Model of Secondary Equipments and Its Solving

为了有效地实现电网二次设备的风险评估,设计了一套设备类型可靠性指标、供电区可靠性指标和设备厂家可靠性指标,以及基于设备全寿命理论的时限风险指标,建立了一种计及时限失效水平的电力系统二次设备多因素风险评估模型。利用模糊隶属函数的抽象评判能力和层次分析法对该模型进行求解。基于某省电网2011年二次设备运行统计数据,对这些二次设备按所述模型进行了多因素风险评估,结果验证了所提模型与求解方法的实用性和可操作性。

In order to perform effectively the risk assessment of secondary equipments, designing a set of assessment indexes including that for equipment-type reliability, power-supply area reliability and equipment-producer reliabily as well as that taking the equipment-lifespan-based duration-failure-level into consideration, this paper proposes a general multifactor risk assessment model for secondary equipments, and solves the model by using the abstract evaluation ability of fuzzy membership functions and the analytic hierarchy process. Based on the statistical data of secondary equipments operation in a certain province, 2011, their risk assessment is carried out with the proposed model, and the results show that the model and its solving are feasible and in operability.