基于改进负荷密度法的微网负荷预测

Load Forecast of Microgrid Based on Improved Load Density Method

微网的负荷预测是微网规划、建设研究中的一个难点问题。由于微网的特殊性,常规负荷预测的方法不能直接用于微网负荷预测中。在对微网负荷进行分类的基础上,梳理常用的负荷预测方法,并提出可能应用于微网的方法。根据微网中负荷密度与社会经济因素的关系,使用统计软件SPSS19.0着重研究了一种适用于微网的改进的负荷密度法。实例研究结果表明基于主成分回归分析的改进的负荷密度法在一定程度上提高了预测精度。

The load of microgrid is a difficult problem in microgrid planning and construction research. The conventional load forecas- ting method can＇t be used directly in microgrid because of its particularity. Based on the classification of loads, this paper has carded the commonly used methods, and put forward methods that can be used in mierogrids. According to the relationship between the load density in microgrids and socioeconomic factors, the statistical software SPSS19.0 is used to study an improved load density method which is suitable for microgrid in particular. The research results show that the improved load density method based on the principal components regression analysis improves prediction accuracy to a certain extent.