我国海洋经济景气指数及波动特征研究

Analysis on boom index and fluctuating characteristics of marine economy in China

近年来,我国海洋经济取得了长足的进展,但海洋经济的发展趋势及其周期波动具有其内在的本质特征和规律。文章通过对我国海洋经济发展中的波动性进行分解,使用K-L信息量法、时差序列相关分析、灰色关联度等方法对我国海洋经济总量及主要海洋产业的景气指标进行分类,设计先行、一致和滞后指标,编制我国海洋经济波动的合成指数及扩散指数,研究我国海洋经济总量及主要海洋产业的波动特征,揭示其波动特点和发展趋势。本文最终得到我国海洋经济总量及三大主要产业的扩散指数以及合成指数走势图,对2000-2010年的海洋经济总量、海洋渔业、滨海旅游业及海洋交通运输业的波动进行了阶段性划分,并对其内在原因进行了深度剖析。

In recent years, China＇s marine economy has made great progress. However, the trend and fluctuation of China＇s marine economy have their own innate characters and regular patterns. Through decomposing fluctuations existing in China＇s marine economy, this paper applies K-L method, Time Series Analysis and Grey Correlation Analysis to classify boom indexes of China＇s overall marine economy and main marine industries, designs leading indexes, synchronous indexes and lags indexes, calculates DI and CI, researches the fluctuations in China＇s overall marine economy and main marine industries, reveals their characteristics, trends and reasons. The paper finally gets the Chart of DI and CI trend of our overall marine economy and three major marine industries, divides marine economy and three major industries into stages according to their fluctuations during 2000-2010, and gets further insight into the instinct reasons.