国际分散化生产约束了我国出口技术结构升级?——基于省级动态面板数据GMM方法

Does international fragmented production restrict the upgrade of technology structure of chinese export industries: evidence from province level dynamic panel data model with gmm estimation

通过修正和完善Schott(2006)模型,本文构建了一个测度出口技术结构的新方法,并借助该方法结合我国31个省级区域HS码的65章产品出口数据,测度了2002-2008年我国各省级区域的出口技术结构。在此基础上,运用两步法系统GMM估计从东、中和西部三个区域层面研究了国际分散化生产对我国出口技术结构的影响。主要结论有:首先,国际分散化生产对我国出口技术结构的影响表现出先负后正的V型特征;其次近年来,我国各省级区域出口技术结构均有明显提升,但并不像Rodrik测度的那么高,且区域间出口技术结构有"多均衡收敛"的发展趋势;最后我国出口技术结构有着与普通发展中国家不同的提升模式,外商直接投资对我国出口技术结构的提升作用具有显著的边际递减效应。

On the basis of revising the model of Schott（2006）, this paper put forward a new method to estimate the technology struc- ture of export industry, then with 31 provinces＇ export data in HS code, we estimate the technology structure of export industries from 2002 to 2008. Then we take advantage of System GMM Estimation to analysis the influence of international fragmented production to the technology structure of Chinese export Industries from regional level. The main results show that ： First technology structure of Chinese export industries increase quickly, but not as high as Rodrik（2006） estimated, and each region＇ s technology structure of export indus- tries converge to the different equilibrium point. Second the dynamic influence of International fragmented production to the technology structure of Chinese export industries like the word V. Third the enhance pattern of the technology structure of Chinese export industries is different from ordinary developing countries.