技术创新推动下的中国产业结构进化

Chinese industry structure evolution driven by innovation

技术创新是产业进化的根本动力。很多学者对此进行了大量的理论研究。然而,与此相关的数量研究却很少。文章从技术创新的角度研究产业进化的动力和过程。在Lorentz,Savona和Lorentz,Savona的基础上构建了一个具有微观基础及内生创新机制的产业进化模型,对中国的产业结构进化进行了情景模拟。研究发现,技术创新导致的劳动生产力的提高以及企业物质资本成本的节约共同作用推动了中国产业结构进化。其中,物质资本节约型创新对产业进化起着关键的作用。

Innovation is considered to be the key driving force of industry dynamics and evolution. However, there are few quantity studies in this field. The paper studies the driving force and process of Chinese industry evolution from the perspective of innovation. Based on Lorentz and Savona（2008）and Lorentz and Savona（2010） we establish a micro -founded industry dynamics and evolution model with endogenous innovation mechanism and carry out scenario analysis based on Chinese data. We find that the evolution of in- dustry structure and macro - economic growth in China can be mainly attributed to the improvement of labor productivity and the saving of capital material induced by innovation, and the latter appears to be the key driving force supporting overall industry structure change and economic growth.