我国服务价格与物价总水平波动互动关系研究

Empirical Research on the Interaction Relationship between Fluctuation of Service Price and General Level of Market Prices in China

通过采用1992～2011年全国居民消费价格总水平、服务价格上涨率时间序列数据,建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解的方法对服务价格波动和我国物价总水平波动互动关系进行实证研究。计量结果表明,服务价格波动与我国物价总水平波动间存在单向因果关系,服务价格波动是我国物价总水平波动的格兰杰原因。服务价格波动1%,会带来物价总水平0.5902%的波动。VAR模型的动态分析表明,服务价格波动对我国物价总水平波动约有5年的影响。方差分解的结果说明服务价格波动对我国物价总水平波动的贡献率最大达到38.4%。要防止我国物价总水平大幅度波动,政府需要更加重视产业价格政策。

Based on 1992 -2011 data of overall level of consumer prices and service price inflation rate, this paper conducted an empirical study on the interaction relationship between fluctuation of service price and general level of market prices in China by using impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis based on VAR model. The analysis results indicate that an unidirectional causality relationship exist among fluctuation of service price and general level of market prices in China and 1% fluctuation of service price does Granger cause 0. 5902% fluctuation of general level of market prices. Dynamic analysis based on VAR model shows that fluctua- tion of service price influences that of China＇ s general level of market prices about 5 years. Variance decomposition analysis shows that fluctuation of service price has the maximum contribution rate reached 38.4% that of China＇ s general level of market prices. The government needs to pay more attention to the industrial price policy in order to prevent fluctuation of China＇ s general price level.