基于可拓学的检验检疫风险预警模型研究

Study on CIQ risk early-warning model based on extension theory

为加强中国检验检疫风险预警能力,实现具有相关信息收集、分析、决策及风险发布、监管的检验检疫风险管理功能,以检验检疫数据和国家标准作为风险预警的数据输入,提出了基于可拓学的检验检疫风险预警模型。从检验检疫的视角来分析检验检疫风险预测所需要的指标参数,然后根据可拓学的理论把指标参数用于经典域、相关节域内容的设定,接着按照可拓学的风险预警模型的步骤和方法来计算各预警权值系数和安全度数值,最后结合F市出入境检验检疫局的风险实际情况进行数据分析。结果证明,基于可拓学的预警方法可以为检验检疫风险预警提供较好的风险预警和预测方法。

In order to strengthen early warning ability inspection and quarantine risk in China,with relevant information collection,analysis,decision and risk distribution,the regulatory functions of the inspection and quarantine risk management function,the inspection and Quarantine Bureau date and national standards for inspection and quarantine risk warning data input,is proposed based on the extension of inspection and quarantine risk warning model study.This paper focuses on the analysis of parameters of the inspection and quarantine risk prediction needs from the inspection and quarantine perspective,then according to the theory of extension to parameters for classical field,relevant section content settings,then in accordance with the procedure and method of extension risk early warning model to calculate the weight coefficient and safety early warning value.Findlly,combining F entry-exit inspection and Quarantine Bureau of inspection and quarantine risk situation of data analysis.Experimental results show that based on the extension early-warning methodology can provide limited early warning information and prediction methods for the inspection and quarantine risk warning.