摘要
本文通过构建劳动力需求和供给模型,考察了影响美国制造业就业的主要因素,并基于最优消费决策条件的经验数据测量模型(K-R),重点研究了人民币实际汇率变动对美国制造业就业的影响;然后通过实证研究全面分析了1981~2011年度人民币实际汇率和美国国内因素对美国制造业就业的影响。研究结果表明:无论短期还是长期,美国制造业技术进步率上升和人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动制造业就业增长;从长期来看,人民币实际汇率贬值和美国实际利率下降能够在一定程度上促进制造业就业增加;但从短期来看,美国制造业实际工资率上升对制造业就业的正向影响更加显著。
This paper observes the main factors which influence U.S.manufacturing industry employment by constructing labor demand and supply model.Meantime,this paper researches the impact of RMB real exchange rate movements on U.S.manufacturing industry employment by using empirical data measurement model(K-R) based on optimal consumption decision-making conditions.Then through empirical research,this paper analyzes the impact of RMB real exchange rate and U.S.domestic factors on U.S.manufacturing industry employment from 1981 to 2011.The results show that: whether in the short-term or in the long-term,increase of technological progress rate and per capita capital stock of U.S.manufacturing industry can both promote manufacturing industry employment growth significantly.In the long run,depreciation of RMB real exchange rate and decline of U.S.real interest rate can stimulate manufacturing industry employment increase to some extent.However,in the short run,the positive influence of increase of real wage rate of U.S.manufacturing industry on manufacturing industry employment is more significant.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第8期80-86,89,共7页
World Economy Studies
基金
范爱军教授主持的教育部规划基金项目"国际技术扩散对中国制造业技术进步和产业结构升级的影响研究"的阶段性成果
项目批准号:10YJA790044
山东大学"985工程"三期创新基地建设项目资助