我国公共财政安全监测预警机制构建——一个理论研究框架

Construction of the Mechanism of China's Public Financial Security Monitoring and Early-warning:A Theoretical Research Framework

特定的社会制度和经济基础使我国在较长的时期内保持良好的经济系统安全,但这并不能说明没有潜在系统性风险,或未来不会出现系统经济风险。从财政运行视角看,公共财政建立过程中的财政支出扩张、收入不确定、政府债务膨胀等问题已经成为财政安全的隐患,如果财政风险得不到有效的预警与及时的化解,由财政危机引发整个社会经济危机爆发的可能性将极其严重。为此,本文在重塑我国公共财政安全内涵理念的基础上,从监测、预警和保障三个角度,构建我国公共财政安全监测预警机制的理论框架。最后,提出进一步研究的展望。

In a long period, specific society system and economic foundation keep China＇s economic system stay safe, but it does not mean that we don＇t have the potential systemic risk, or there won＇t appear systematic economic risk in the future. From the perspective of fiscal operation, the problems produced in the process of establishment of public finance, such as expansion of financial expenditure, uncertain income and expansion of government debt, have become the potential risks of financial safety. If the financial risks lack effective early-warning and defusing in time, the possibility of the outbreak of the whole social economic crisis caused by financial crisis will be extremely serious. Therefore, based on remodeling the connotation and idea of China＇s public financial security, this paper builds the theoretical framework of the mechanism of China＇s public financial security monitoring and early-warning from three views of monitoring, early-warning and guarantee. Finally, it provides prospects for further research.