消费习惯偏好、政府支出扩张与产出效应

Consumption Habit Preference,Government Spending Expansion and the Output Effect

本文基于具有消费习惯偏好的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,运用数值模拟技术分析了我国政府支出扩张对消费和产出的影响。研究发现,政府支出扩张虽然能有效增加社会总产出,但对私人消费产生了挤出效应,从而形成了我国"高增长-低消费"的特殊经济格局。同时,研究还表明,低消费习惯偏好下政府支出的政策效果显著优于高消费习惯偏好下政府支出的政策效果。因此,要保证国民经济持续健康有效地运行,除了降低政府支出占国内生产总值的比重外,还应优化财政支出结构,降低居民消费习惯偏好,使政府支出有利于居民消费增长。

This paper analyzed the impact of government spending expansion on output and eonsumption by using the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and numerical simulation analysis. The results showed that the expansion of government spending not only would increase output, but also could crowd out private consumption. Meanwhile, the research proved that the effects of government spending within low consumption habit preference band were better than the effects within high consumption habit preference band. Therefore, reducing the ratio of government spending to GDP and improving the government spending structure are important measures to achieve the economy＇s balanced development and to promote the increase in household consumption for our country.