中国育龄人群的生育意愿及其影响估计

Reproductive Population's Fertility Desire and Its Influence in China

文章利用2011年中国社会状况综合调查和2012年中国家庭幸福感热点问题调查原始数据，对中国育龄人群目前的生育意愿及其变化趋势进行分析，并结合中国现有人口总量和结构估计若生育意愿得到满足可能对中国出生人口规模产生的影响。研究结果显示，中国2012年的平均意愿生育水平为1．86，其95％置信区间范围是[1．84，1．88]。从长期来看，随着城镇化和教育等社会经济因素的发展，育龄人群生育意愿将趋近于1．80左右。如果将生育意愿转化为实际生育行为，2010-2020年最多将导致中国每年出生人口规模增加510万人左右，其中城镇350万人，农村160万人。此外，意愿生育水平每提高0．10，中国每年出生人口规模将再增加100万人左右。

Based on 2011 Chinese social survey and 2012 Chinese family happiness survey,this paper measures China's current fertility desire and analyses its potential influence on China's population size.The study shows that the mean fertility desire level in China is 1.86 with 95%confidence interval from 1.84 to 1.88.The fertility desire level in China has been declining in the past 30 years and will lay around 1.80 in the long run with the progress of urbanization and education.Our estimates on the potential influence of fertility desire to the population of China show that if women bear children according to their fertility desire between 2010 and 2020,the born population will increase at most 5.1 million per year,of which the urban areas will increase 3.5 million,and the rural areas will increase 1.6 million.