长江三角洲地区就业人口分布及其时空变化研究

A Study on the Pattern and Evolution of the Employed in Yangtze River Delta

文章使用1982、1990、2000和2010年人口普查数据,应用区位基尼系数、偏离份额和专业化指数测度就业人口的时空演变过程,探究其分布变化规律。结果显示:(1)长三角地区就业人口演变的特点是集聚程度整体上先扩散后集聚;行业专业化水平变化不一;由单中心向多中心格局演变;前期以全域人口移入为主,后期以宁镇和苏中地区移出为主。(2)就业构成主因子分析结果显示,第一主因子所占比例和反映的指标数均较高;指标与主因子之间均表现为正相关;不同时期的密度主因子和数量主因子变化不大,同一时期二者主因子有一定差异。(3)将长三角地区划分为农业区、建筑业区、工业区、生产性服务区、生活性服务区、公共性服务区六类后,数量上工业区和服务业区增加,空间上农业和建筑业趋于分散。

On the basis of the publication data from National Population Census in 1982,1990,2000 and 2010,this paper measures the evolution of employed population by using spatial Gini coefficient,shift-share analysis and specialization index.We also examine which industry is most contributive to the scale of employed population by using principal component analysis.According to our study,the evolution of employed population shows that,on the whole,it tends to diffuse and then aggregate,and there is a remarkable diversity among different levels of industrial division.The pattern develops from single-center into multi-centers,which shows that in earlier stage the immigration of the external population is the predominant tendency,but the tendency in later stage is the external migration of population in Nanjing,Zhenjiang and the mid-region of Jiangsu.With the principal component analysis on the employment structure we find that the proportion and index number of the first component are high,and the relationship between component and index shows a positive correlation.The analysis also finds that the changes of the component of density and quantity are small,and there is a remarkable diversity between the component of density and quantity in the same year.Based on the observations,we divide Yangtze River Delta into the following six areas:agricultural area,the area of construction industry,industrial area,the area of producer services,the area of living services and the area of public services.