环境规制、服务业发展与我国的产业结构调整

Environmental Regulation,Service Industry Development and Industrial Restructuring

亚洲金融危机以来,产业政策在中国政府宏观经济调控中的地位与作用发生了较大变化。产业政策由着眼于结构调节、技术进步、产业组织调节等方面的中长期政策,逐步进入经济运行宏观调节领域,成为与财政政策、货币政策并列的政府推动经济发展,进行经济宏观调控的重要政策。财政政策、货币政策、产业政策三大政策并用,成为中国政府推动经济发展,管理经济的重要特征。本文对这一中国政府经济宏观调节特征,进行了初步的基于经验、历史与理论的分析,并且对中国政府这种调节方式的局限进行了初步论述。本文采用2001～2010年的省级面板数据，实证检验了环境规制对服务业发展与产业结构调整的影响。结果表明，我国的环境规制政策对于服务业的增长具有显著的促进作用，但是，环境规制政策在不同地区的表现存在差异。东部地区和西部地区的环境规制政策对当地服务业的促进作用较为明显，相形之下，中部地区的环境规制政策对当地服务业发展的影响比较微弱。因此，环境规制能否成为地方政府促进服务业发展和产业结构调整的有效工具，取决于地方政府的经济激励和政治激励的权衡。对于中央政府而言，强化地方政府的环保绩效有益于提高政治激励，对于服务业发展和产业结构调整具有重要作用。

This paper investigates influence of the environmental regulation over the development of service in- dustry and the industrial restructuring in china based on the panel data during the period from 2001 to 2010. The re- sult shows the environmental regulation had significantly boosted the service industry in China. Nevertheless, Dis- crepancies exist among the influences of the environmental regulation over different regions. While the eastern and western regions witness an apparent boost given by the environmental regulation to local service industry, the envi- ronmental regulation plays a relatively weak role in the development of the service industry in middle regions. Therefore, it depends on the tradeoff between economic and political incentives of local governments whether the environmental regulation can be an effective instrument to facilitate the service industry development and indus- trial restructuring. As far as the Central Government is concerned, enhancement of the performance of environmental protection is instrument to improving the political incentives for the local governments. Thus the Central Government can further increase the importance and proportion of environmental protection in the government performance evalu- ation system, apply more stringent total quantity control target for environmental regulation and break down the target into feasible political performance applicable for quantified evaluation, e. g. including in the comprehensive environ- ment assessment system the indexes such as environment quality, energy saving ＆ emission reduction and investment in environmental protection to build up dynamic quantified environment index library for reference for officer evalua- tion. In addition, owing to the discrepancy among the effects of the political incentive of environmental regulation in different regions, the effect of chasing economic growth is stronger than the political incentive effect arising from en- vironmental regulation in the middle region. Since the gradient transfer of manufacturing industries from east regions to middle regions is an irresistible trend, it is imperative to contain the impulse of middle region to loosen the envi- ronmental regulation to compete with other regions and take over the industrial transfer. Therefore we suggest to modify the environment law to intensify the environmental responsibility of local government, enhance the status and law enforcement power of the environmental protection authorities and maintain the independence of the environ- mental protection authorities by way of vertical management so as to weaken the local government＇ s intervention in the law enforcement by the environmental protection authorities. Furthermore, this paper also finds it important for the development of service industries to drive urbanization. The advancement of industrial structure from manufactur- ing economy to service economy is characterized by path dependence, the more industrialized it is, the more it im- pedes the development of service industries, as a result, it is harder for the region to transit to service econo- my. Therefore the industrialized city shall be determined to ronment regulation and speed up the development the achieve economic restructuring by reinforcing the envi- productive service industry by means of supportive policies. Moreover, the urbanization will facilitate the development of service industry through combined effect. Thus the government shall coordinate the environment regulation with economy development, increase its support to the service industry, plan the industry system well and build reasonable industrial structure during the urbanization con- struction.