摘要
准确的面雨量预报可有效提高洪水预报的精度和延长洪水预见期,是提高预报准确率的有效途径。基于信息扩散技术,以淮河流域面雨量预报集成为例,提出一种集成应用方案,利用淮河流域2012年6～8月的ECMWF、JMA面雨量预报资料进行集成预报试验。应用试验表明,集成预报(CFCST)性能总体上优于单个预报成员(ECMWF、JMA)。
Accurate areal rainfall forecast can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and extend the flood forecast period. Consensus forecast is an effective way to improve the accuracy of forecasting areal rainfall. Consensus forecast method of areal rainfall is proposed based on the information diffusion technique. The consensus forecast is conducted by utilizing the numerical precipitation forecast of ECMWF and JMA in the period 6 8, 2012 in Huaihe river basin. The results indicate that the performance of areal rainfall consensus forecast （CFCST） is overall better than that of single method （ECMWF, JMA）.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第8期12-15,243,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
安徽省气象局预报员专项基金资助项目(AHYBY201203)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金资助项目(GYHY201006037)
淮河流域气象开放研究基金资助项目(HRM201103)
关键词
信息扩散
模糊关系矩阵
面雨量
集成预报
淮河流域
information diffusion
fuzzy relation matrix
areal rainfall
consensus forecast
H uaihe river basin
