摘要
为了解下关站的潮位过程,以长江下游镇江站为参证站,从平均潮位、潮差、潮位过程平移和重建出发,以2000～2003年汛期为研究时段,采用混合线性回归模型探讨了南京秦淮河出口下关站的潮位拟合和预报过程。检验结果表明,模型简单实用,下关站潮位过程预报合格率达到92%以上,可供秦淮河流域防洪减灾与水资源调度参考。
Taking Zhenjiang Station in the lower reach of the Yangtse River as the referenced station, average tidal level, tidal range, shifting and reconstruction of tidal level process are considered to simulate the tidal process of Xiaguan Station. Setting 2000-2003 as the study period, the mixed linear regression model is used to discuss the tidal level fitting and prediction of Xiaguan Station in Qinhuaihe River. The test results show that the tidal level forecasting qualified rate of Xiaguan station reaches more than 92%; the model can be widely used in the flood control and water resources regulation practice of the Qinhuaihe River Basin.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第8期53-55,244,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
混合线性回归
潮位
预报
秦淮河
下关站
镇江站
mixed linear regression
tidal level
forecast
Qinhuaihe River
Xiaguan Station
Zhenjiang Station
