黑龙江省干旱灾害经济损失风险评估与分析

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Drought Economic Losses in Heilongjiang Province

基于黑龙江省2004～ 2008年的干旱所造成直接经济损失,采用信息扩散理论分析了黑龙江省各市（县）因干旱造成的直接经济损失风险.研究认为：①黑龙江省因干旱造成的直接经济损失风险中的重度风险损失、较重损失风险集中在西部的齐齐哈尔、大庆地区,以及佳木斯地区的中部和南部县市；中度损失分布在黑河、牡丹江、鹤岗地区；轻度损失风险则分布在大兴安岭、伊春、鸡西、双鸭山地区.②黑龙江省54.4％市（县）干旱直接经济损失风险为四年一遇,主要集中在西部的齐齐哈尔和大庆地区；全省有47.4％、38.2％市（县）干旱直接经济损失风险分别为两年一遇和四年三遇,主要分布在西部的齐齐哈尔地区及东部的佳木斯地区；损失风险为二十年一遇的市（县）仅占全省的17.1％,零散分布在同江、绥滨、友谊、宝清等13个市（县）,损失风险存在明显的地域差异.

In this paper, the risk of direct economic losses caused by drough in every counties and cities of Heilongjiang Province is analyzed by using information diffusion theory based on the direct drought economic losses data from 2004 to 2008. The research results show as followed： （1） the risk of severe and heavy economic losses of direct drought economic losses is concentrated in the western part of Qiqihar, Daqing, the central and southern parts of Jiamusi; the risk of moderate economic losses distributed in Heihe, Mudanjiang and Hegang district; the risk of light economic losses located in the Daxing＇ anling, Yichun, Jixi and Shuangyashan district. （2） the risk of direct economic losses in 54.4% of counties and cities in Heilongjiang Province has happened once in four years, mainly located in the westem part of Qiqihar and Daqing district; 47.4% of counties and cities has happened once in two years, and 38.2% of counties and cities has happened third in four years, concentrated in the western part of Qiqihar and eastern part of Jiamasi; the risk of economic losses which is once in twenty years only accounted for 17. 1% in Heilongjiang Province, scattered in Tongjiang, Suibin, Youyi, Baoqing and other 13 cities or counties, the risk of economic losses has obvious differences in different locations.