张北M_S6.2级地震前兆综合加权信息量的变化

Variation of comprehensive weighted information content of earthquake precursors before the M_S6.2 Zhangbei earthquake

地震前兆综合加权信息量是在地震综合信息量的基础上 ,改进了地震前兆异常出现概率的计算方法后得出的一种综合预报新方法。利用“地震预报专家系统”的思想对每一异常事件进行综合评估 ,考虑到异常的可靠性、有效性、显著性及相互关联性给予不同的权重 ,以每一异常事件的最可能发震时间来估算异常出现的概率 ,计算了华北地区 1990年以来的地震前兆综合加权信息量 ,分析了 1998年 1月 10日张北MS6 2级地震前这种信息量变化的特点。

On the basis of the seismic comprehensive information content,comprehensive weighted information content of earthquake precursor is a new method after improving seismic precursory anomaly ratio computing method.Each anomaly event is comprehensive estimated by using“seismic prediction expert system”.Considering the anomalous reliability,validity,significance and dependence,the authors use different weight to calculate the comprehensive weighted information content of the seismc precursory since 1990 in North China, and the information content variation before the M S 6 2 Zhangbei earthquake on Jan 10,1998 is analyzed.