华南地区中强震前C、D、M_f值综合异常交汇区的演化过程

Evolution process of synthetic anomalous intersection zone of C,D and M_f values before moderately strong earthquakes in South China area

从大震前中小地震活动的增强过程和大地震常常发生在异常区外围的现象出发 ,提出用描述地震分布时、空、强基本特点的空间集中度C、地震危险度D和地震强度因子Mf 进行交汇预测未来中强地震 ,应用于华南地区的震例一般预测半径范围为 2° ,并总结了综合异常的中短期特征。

According to the activities of moderate and small earthquakes which usually have a strengthening process before a large earthquake and the phenomena that large earthquakes often occur in the periphery of the anomalous zone,the authors proposed that the intersection zone of the parameters describing the characteristics of the temporal,spatial and intensity distribution of earthquakes(the spatial concentration degree C,the seismic risk degree D and the seismic intensity factor M f)could be used to predict future moderately strong earthquakes.The application of the method to the earthquake prediction in South China area has shown that the accuracy of estimated epicentral location might reach 2 in radius.Finally,the middle and sort term characteristics of the synthetic anomalies are also summarized.