ENSO事件与云南冬季气温异常

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO EVENTS AND WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IN YUNNAN

分析了１９６１ 年以来１１ 次ＥｌＮｉｎｏ 和８ 次Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件对云南冬季气温变化的影响，发现：ＥｌＮｉｎｏ（Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ）年云南冬季气温偏高（低），有暖（冷）冬特征，其中以东部、中部和南部最为显著．冬季赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴＡ 与同期云南气温距平有显著的正相关，上一年ＳＳＴＡ 与次年云南１ 月气温也有好的正相关．ＳＳＴＡ 异常正（负）值是云南暖（冷）冬的一个强信号．在ＥＮＳＯ影响下，东亚冬季风偏弱（强）是形成云南暖（冷）冬的主要原因．

The influences of 11 El Nio and 8 La Nia events since 1961 on winter temperature variation in Yunnan have been analyzed .It is found that the winter temperature in Yunnan is higher(lower) in El Nio(La Nia)years ,which has warm(cold) winter feature,and is more obvious in eastern,middle and southern Yunnan.The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the equatorial East Pacific has the positive significant correlation with winter temperature anomaly in Yunnan,and monthly SSTA in the previous year has better positive correlation with temperature anomaly of Yunnan in January of the next year .The SST positive (negative)anomaly is a strong signal of warm (cold)winter in Yunnan.Under the influence of ENSO,the weak(strong)winter monsoon over East Asia is the main cause of warm (cold)winter in Yunnan.