华北西部地震复发规律及未来强震概率预测

Earthquake Recurrent Rule of the West of the North China and Prediction of Strong Earthquake Probability

以公元 10 0 0年以来的华北西部的地震简目所刊地震为样本 ,运用绝对时间间隔的加权平均方法计算出华北西部 M≥ 7.0地震的平均复发周期 (T)为 85 .8a。将随机过程理论中的非稳态泊松过程应用在华北西部地震长期预测中 ,结果为 2 10 0年前 ,华北西部发生一次 7.0级以上大地震的累积概率为 0 .6 0 39,条件概率为 0 .35 44 ,概率增益为 1.6 10

The earthquake catalogue of the west of the North China since 1000 is treated as sample, using the weighted average method of absolute time interval, that M≥7 earthquakes recurrent period is 85 8 years in the west of the North China is acquired The non steady state Poisson process in the random process theory is applied to Long term earthquake prediction for the West of the North China The result marks that the probability of once Ms7 0 earthquake in the west of North China before 2100 is 0 603 9,conditional probability is 0 354 4, probability gain is 1 610 9