我国水资源现状与用水策略初探

Present situation and policy of water resources in China

淡水资源的匮乏,严重制约着国家经济与社会的发展。以2025年的水资源状况为研究对象,利用二次指数平滑法对2025年的用水需求进行预测,结合我国水资源现状,从海水淡化、延伸南水北调、加强水资源保护三方面提出我国今后的用水策略。研究表明:高新海水淡化技术可降低成本,有效解决沿海地区用水问题;将南水北调中线从石家庄延至太原,在山西境内将中线和汾河连接,可缓解山西的缺水问题;占水量和降水量对用水量的影响显著,建议通过"阶梯水价",加强水资源管理与保护,进而可实现节约用水的目的。

The development of the national economic and social has been seriously restricted due to lack of fresh water reseurces. Water resources condition in 2025 is the research target in this paper,and the secondary exponential smoothing method is used to forecast the water demand in 2025,then a good water strategy include sea water desalination,extended south--to--north water transfer and protection of water resources is put forward to solve water problem. The researches show that new desalination technologies can reduce the cost,and are effective in solving the problem of water in coastal areas~ and extending the middle route of south--to--north water transfer from Shijiazhuang to Taiyuan,connecting middle route and Fen River in Shanxi,is an effective way to solve the water tension caused by deficiency in Shanxi：and the place that where possession of water and rainfall capacity is large can consume more water,so implementing ＂price ladder＂ is suggested to achieve the purpose of save water.