可能性熵权在尾矿坝风险评估中的应用

Application of Possibility Entropy Weight in Security Risk Assessment of Tailing Dam

针对尾矿坝风险评估中由各指标信息的不确定性所造成的权值难以选取,以及导致评价效果降低的问题。以可能性分布来统一表征信息的的模糊、随机、不完全等不确定性,并映射到[0,1]区间上以统一量纲。引入广义模糊数来定量描述专家信息,并提出了一种新的广义模糊数相似测度计算方法。利用广义模糊相似测度对各指标的可能性熵权进行调整,以获得更加合理、有效的指标权值,并通过实例进行了验证。验证结果表明,可能性熵权法在不确定性信息的处理方面具有更强的适用性,它有效地将可能性熵权的定量性和客观性与模糊专家信息的包容性融合在一起,为尾矿坝风险评估中各指标权值的选取提供了理论依据。

In the risk evaluation of tailings dam, according to the weights of monitoring index, and the low of evaluation effect. In this paper, we represent the monitoring data of fuzziness, randomness and incompleteness by possibility distributions, which are mapped to the interval [0,1] for the united dimension. And a new method is presented to calculate the similarity measure of generalized fuzzy numbers on the basis of the generalized fuzzy numbers as the expert information. In order to get more reasonable and effective weights, the weights of possibility entropy are adjusted by the similarity measures with generalized fuzzy expert information, and the validity is verified by examples. The method has better adaptability that not only includes the quantitative property and objectivity of possibility entropy, but also the inclusiveness of expert information of generalized fuzzy, providing the theoretical basis for security risk assessment of tailing dam.