广义相加模型在高温热浪对呼吸系统疾病影响研究中的应用

Application of Generalized Additive Model in the Research of Influence of High Temperature and Heat Wave on Human Health

运用广义相加模型探讨南京市高温热浪对当地居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响,结果表明呼吸系统疾病总人数受到当日最高温度、死亡前1d、6d的日最高气温的影响。影响最大的因素是当日最高温度,其RR值为0.886(95%CI:0.771～0.972)。男性主要受到死亡前6d的日最高气温影响,女性受到当日最高温度以及死亡前1d的日最高气温的影响。60岁以上的老年人主要受到当日的平均温度、死亡前1d以及死亡前6d的日最高气温的影响。影响最大的因素是死亡前1d的日最高温度,其RR值1.095(95%CI:1.03～1.163)。广义相加模型预测的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与实际死亡人数较相近,上升与下降的变化趋势基本一致。

Discussion on the influence of heat waves on the daily mortality of respiratory disease in Nanjing area based on the generalized additive model. The results show that the death of respiratory diseases was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the very day, lag1 and lag6 in the heat waves, and the most important factor was the maximum temperature of the very day, its relative risk values was 0.886（95%CI：0.771-0.972）. Man was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of lag6, while woman was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the very day and lag1. People over 60 years old, was affected by the average temperature of the very day, lag1 and lag6, and the most important factor was lag1, its relative risk values was 1.095（95%CI： 1.03-1.163）. The prediction values by GAM were close to the actual mortality, and the trend of rise and decline was similar.