对中国经济增长统计数据可信度的估计

An Estimation of the Reliability of Statistic Data on China's Economic Growth

中国经济增长速度统计数据的可信度问题 ,一直受到国内外各方面的注意。这项统计数据是否准确可靠 ,不但会影响经济预测与分析的准确性 ,也会直接影响宏观经济政策的合理性和准确性 ,进而可能对经济运行本身产生积极或消极影响。当研究中国经济增长状况和未来前景时 ,有必要对过去相当长时期统计数据的可信度作出独立分析和判断。本文对不同时期经济增长率的可信度进行了初步的估计。

The reliability of the statistic data on China's economic growth rate has been recognized to be an important issue. Whether they are reliable will affect not only the accuracy of economic forecasts and analyses, but also the rationality and accuracy of macroeconomic policies,and therefore they will eventually affect economic performance either positively or negatively. This paper attempts to make an independent judgement on the reliability of China's economic growth statistics, and to provide an alternative estimation for the average economic growth rates in different stages of the economic reform and pre reform periods.