中国粮食生产区域特征与成因研究——市场化改革以来的实证分析

A Study of the Regional Characteristics of China's Grain Production:An Empirical Analysis Since the Market-oriented Reform

中国各省区粮食产量占全国粮食总产的比例的动态计算和统计分析表明 ,市场化改革以来 ,中国粮食生产具有稳定的区域变化特征。计量检验显示 ,农村人均耕地资源与非农产业就业拉力是中国粮食生产区域特征的重要影响因素。本研究提示 ,中国粮食生产区域特征具有持久性 ,它对区域粮食政策和省区际粮食贸易将产生深远影响。

This paper attempts to describe the regional characteristics of China's grain production and to find out their main contributing factors since market oriented reform.Based on the dynamic computation and analysis of statistics of the respective proportion of the grain yield of 29 provinces in the total amount of China during 1982-1998,significant and stable regional characteristics are revealed.These characteristics can boil down to the fact that this proportion increases or decreases significantly in 15 provinces,to a certain extent in 7 provinces,it has no tendencies in other 7 provinces,and the longer the time span considered,the more the change of the regional distribution of this proportion.The analysis of econometrics shows that such factors as per capita cultivated land of rural China and the employment pull of non agricultural industries play important roles in bringing about the regional characteristics.The policy implications of the results of the paper are that the regional characteristics of grain production will still work in the foreseeable future and will have significant impacts on China's inter provincial grain trade and the regional policies of grain production.