考虑负荷不确定性的分布式能源系统鲁棒优化

Robust Optimization of Distributed Energy System Considering Load Uncertainty

针对分布式能源系统的经济效益有可能因实际负荷的不确定性无法充分发挥的问题,将考虑设备容量离散性的优化配置方法与最小最大后悔值法相结合,发展了考虑负荷不确定性的鲁棒优化配置方法。基于此方法,结合实例,采用由微型燃气轮机冷热电三联供和地下水地源热泵组成的分布式能源系统形式,研究负荷不确定性对系统配置和经济性的影响。考虑负荷不确定性有可能改变系统的优化配置容量、设备总造价及年总费用的最大后悔值,并降低系统优化配置方案在实际运行时的经济风险,使其经济效益更具鲁棒性。该实例研究验证了该方法的有效性。

The economic benefit of distributed energy system may not be brought into full play due to its actual load uncertainty. Therefore, a robust optimal configuration method considering load uncertainty is developed by combining the optimal configuration method considering discreteness of equipment capaci- ties with the minimax regret criterion. Based on this method, the influence of load uncertainty on the system configuration and economy is studied by using the dis- tributed energy system composed of gas microturbine- driven CCHP system and groundwater heat pump. The optimal equipment capacities, the initial investment cost and the maximum regret in annual total cost may change, the economic risk of the optimal configuration scheme of the system during the actual operation can be reduced, and the robustness in the economic benefit is strengthened when the load uncertainty is considered. The validity of the proposed method is verified by the case study.