摘要
预测在经济社会发展中,以至在人们的生活工作中,都是非常重要的。人们经常做出各种预测,但预测的准确性、可靠性,是一个一直困扰人们的问题。对于预测,我们已经有所认识,但对预测的一些深层次特点和问题,需要进一步分析研究。
Prediction plays an important part in every aspects of society and economy, ranging from their macro development to everyday life. Although they are made in high frequency, large quantities and great varieties, their accuracy and reliability remain a worrying problem. We have gained some insight into predictions, but their profound characteristics and issues are still to be studied and analyzed.
关键词
预测
决策
不确定性
预测悖论
预测能力
Prediction
Decision
Uncertainty
Paradox of Prediction
Prediction Capability
