贵州省仁怀市城乡建设用地需求预测

Construction Land Demand Forecast in Renhuai City of Guizhou Province

为了给喀斯特地区工业化城镇化下的土地资源优化配置机制与高效利用、区域经济与生态环境可持续协调发展提供科学依据,贵州省仁怀市土地利用现状图及属性数据,通过对建设用地驱动力因子的定量筛选,依据多元回归方法对各类建设用地的需求进行预测。结果表明:仁怀市建设用地需求呈逐年增长趋势,用地量呈不断上升的趋势,而建设用地实际需求与控制指标之间的矛盾日益加剧,未能满足仁怀市社会经济发展对土地的需求。因此,合理的建设用地需求预测,能优化土地利用模式,集约节约利用土地,有效提高土地利用效率,促进仁怀市城市化、工业化及区域社会经济的协调发展。

For providing a scientific reference for the optimal allocation mechanisms and the efficient use of land resources and sustainable development of regional economy and eeotope in karst region under the background of industrialization and urbanization, the present landuse map and property data in Renhuai was used, through quantitative filtering of driving factors of construction land and multiple regression method, demand for all kinds of construction land was reasonably forecasted. The results showed that the Renhuai constructive land demand and land amount grew up year by year. The growing contradiction of construction land in actual demand and control index failed to meet the demand for land in Renhuai socio- economic development. Consequently, reasonable constructive land demand forecast could optimize land- use patterns, intensive economic use of the land, effectively improve the efficiency of land use,and promote the harmonious develonment of urbanization, industrialization and regional socio-economic development.