基于环境学习曲线的山东省碳排放减排潜力研究

Research on CO_2 Reducing Emission Potential in Shandong Province Based on Environment Learning Curve

基于山东省2002—2010年万元产值碳排放量和人均GDP,建立万元产值碳排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线,分析了在此期间的碳排放环境负荷变化及减排潜力;基于2000—2009年产业、行业数据,构建了产业、行业碳排放环境学习曲线,对《山东省国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》确定的削减17%碳排放强度目标的可达性进行了预测.在此基础上,重新计算各行业碳减排目标和分担率.

Based on relevant statistical data including the carbon emissions intensity and per capital GDP from 2000 to 2010 in Shandong Province,the environmental learning curve reflecting the changes between carbon emissions under ten thousand Yuan and per capital GDP was built. We analyzed the carbon emissions changes and potential of environmental load reduction during 2002-2010. We also built environmental learning curve of industries based on the 2000-2009 industry data. The feasibility of the targets on determine the reduction up to 17% according to “the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of National Economic and Social Development of Shandong Province”was predicted,and then the carbon emission reduction targets of each industry and the share ratio were recalculated.