通辽市一次明显降水天气过程分析

Analysis on Weather Process of an Obvious Precipitation in Tongliao City

文章通过数值预报产品的解释应用及对比检验,对2010年10月10—11日通辽市出现的大范围的降水天气过程进行了分析,这次天气过程在西来槽与地面低压倒槽共同作用下,并且在低层配合有切变线,前期暖湿气流的蓄积与后来冷空气的交汇而产生的。通过对数值预报产品的解释应用及对比检验,EC形势预报比较准确,对预报具有较好的指导作用,对于降水预报德国和日本传真预报都比较准确,只是德国降水预报在一定程度上比日本降水预报保守一些。通过检验,使数值预报产品在今后的预报工作中发挥更大的作用。

Through the explain application and contrast test on numerical forecasting production, a wide range of precipitation weather process in October 10 to 11, 2010 was analyzed, these conditions, Western trough and inverted trough of ground low pressure combined action, shear line in lower layers cooperated, accumulation of early warm and wet airflow and assembly of later cold air produced this weather process. EC situation prediction is more exact and has better guiding function for forecasting, the Germany and Japan fax forecasting production are more accurate for precipitation forecasts, only Germany precipitation forecast production is conservative than Japan to some extent. By contrast test, the numerical forecast products play a greater function in the future.