风电功率预测误差分析及预测误差评价方法

Analysis and Evaluation Method of Wind Power Predicted-Error

风电功率预测对含大规模风电的电力系统安全、经济运行有着重要意义。分析了风速和风功率特性、预测模型算法和预测模型输入变量对风功率预测误差的影响;以某风电场实测数据为例,对预测结果采用误差评价指标进行了评价分析,提出通过预测模型修正逐步减小风电功率预测误差的方法,给出了预测模型修正流程图。可为提高风电功率预测精度提供参考,从而使功率预测系统可以更好地服务电力生产。

Wind power prediction is significantly important to the safe and economic operation of power system with large-scale wind power. The effect of the characteristic of wind speed and wind power, the algorithm and input variables of prediction model on power prediction error was analyzed. Taking the measured data in a wind farm as an example, the error evaluation indices were used to evaluate the predictive results, and the method of model modification to gradually reduce the prediction error of wind power has been proposed. Then, the flow chart of prediction error modification was presented. The method can improve the prediction accuracy of wind power, and make the wind power prediction system better for the practical production.