基于随机失效序列的日变路网动态可靠性

Stochastic failure sequences based dynamic reliability in a day-to-day road network

考虑目前缺少评估日变路网性能的可靠性指标及其计算方法,根据可靠性理论中的随机失效序列分析,定义了基于首次失效时间的动态可靠性指标.该指标定义为日变路网性能维持在可靠水平的持续天数等于指定天数的概率,描述的是路网不间断地提供可靠服务的能力.随后采用近似方法估计该指标,并基于蒙特卡罗模拟设计了相应的算法.最后通过一个测试网络表明了动态可靠性指标及其计算方法的可用性.

Due to the lack of reliability indicators and measures for assessing the performance of a day- to-day road network presently, a first time to failure based dynamic reliability indicator was defined by using stochastic failure sequences analysis in reliability theory. It is defined as the probability that the number of days during which the day-to-day road network sustains a reliable performance level equals that of indicated days. This indicator describes the ability that the road network provides reliable service uninterruptedly. An approximate measure was adopted to estimate the indicator, and a corresponding algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. Finally the feasibility of the dynamic indicator and its measure are supported by numerical results of a network.