摘要
在剖析传统生态足迹分析方法的基础上,通过对传统模型中产量因子和均衡因子的修订,得到改进模型。分别用传统模型和改进模型计算2000—2008年兰州市耕地生态足迹,并分析其动态变化过程。传统模型的计算结果显示,兰州市耕地生态足迹增加,生态承载力减少,耕地利用处于生态盈余的弱可持续状态;改进模型的计算结果显示,兰州市耕地生态足迹减少,生态承载力增加,耕地利用处于生态赤字的弱不可持续状态。分析表明,后者更符合实际,说明改进模型更有利于兰州市耕地可持续利用的研究。最后,基于改进模型预测2015年和2020年兰州市耕地生态足迹、生态承载力和耕地可持续指数,并指出提高耕地平均生态生产力的方式。
Based on the analysis of conventional ecological footprint theory,this paper revises its production factor and balance factor to get an improved model.Then it uses the conventional and modified models to calculate Lanzhou＇s farmland ecological footprint from 2000-2008,and analyzes its dynamic changes.Results from the traditional model show increasing ecological footprint,decreasing ecological carrying capacity,and a weak sustainable state with ecological surplus,but results from the improved model are just the opposite.After analysis it turns out that the modified model is more practical and conducive to the study on sustainable use of farmland in Lanzhou.This paper uses the improved model to forecast farmland ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity and sustainable index in Lanzhou,and gives ways of raising the average ecological productivity of farmland.
出处
《资源与产业》
2013年第4期125-129,共5页
Resources & Industries
关键词
生态足迹模型
耕地
时间序列
可持续性
兰州市
ecological footprint model
farmland
time sequence
sustainability
Lanzhou
