我国经济增长趋势和政策选择

The Trend of Economic Growth in China and the Policy Option

在出口下滑、投资增速放缓、低成本优势削弱、TFP增速下降、政府推动作用减弱等因素的作用下,未来我国经济增速将出现逐步放缓的趋势。但由于我国经济发展所处的阶段、发展纵深的空间以及人力资本基础等因素,我国经济依然存在实现较高速度增长的基础。这决定了我国宏观经济政策必须具有中期定位的取向,在稳住增速底线的基础上,实施中期结构性改革方案。

We estimate and calculate the economic growth rate trend of China in the future based on the improved ways of measuring the potential growth rate of GDP and the corresponding parameters in three different scenarios. The paper concludes that there are five factors leading to the China's slowdown.However,there still exist extra basis,like the developing stage of China,the deep development space and the human capital,on which China's economy can develop rapidly at an incredible speed.These conclusions imply that the targeting of macroeconomic policies in China must have a consideration of middle-term location,what's more,themacroeconomic policies must carry on the middle-term structural reform holding on the economic bottom-line.