农业FDI对中国粮食安全的动态影响研究——基于种业研发能力视角

A Study on the Impact of the Agricultural FDI on China's Grain Security

本文以农业发明专利产出代表农业研发能力,通过构建负二项分布模型考察了外资对中国农业研发能力的影响。实证结果表明,外资在中国农业研发领域会产生负向的溢出效应,不断拉大本土企业与外资企业研发水平的差距,有利于外资企业建立技术优势,逐渐形成垄断。以种业为例,本文构建一个以本土和外资企业为主体的研发能力动态仿真系统,模拟外资对中国种业的影响。模拟结果表明,外资企业进入后,容易形成寡头垄断或垄断市场,不断冲击本土种子的价格稳定和市场份额。当外资撤出,本土企业种子研发产出和销售利润虽在短期内会有增加,但增幅将明显滑落,说明本土企业受外资撤资冲击的影响较大,本土研发产出呈现对外资的高度依赖,不利于保障自身的粮食安全。最后,本文就如何合理利用外资、保障中国粮食安全提出了合理的对策建议。

Using agriculture invention patents to represent the agriculture R&D capability, we have, in this paper, constructed a negative Binomial model to examine the impact of foreign investment on China's agriculture R&D. The results of our case study shows that foreign fund will produce negative spillover effect, which will widen the R&D capaility gap be tween foreign-funded enterprises(FFE) and China's local companies. This will give facility for the FFE to establish technical advantates and monopoly gradually in the area. Taking the seed industry as an example, we have, in this pa per, taking as the main body China's local firms and the FFE, constructed a dymamic simulation system in R&D capa bility development to imitate the impact of foreign fund on China's seed industry. The resultl of the simulation reveals that, after FFE entered into China, it was easy to form oligopoly or monopoly markets and to continually impact the price stability and the market share. When foreign companies withdraw their investment, local companies' outputs and profit may increase in the short run, but the growth rate will decline apparently, which means that the local sector will suffer a lot from the withdrawal, and that the developement of local R&D output depends crucially on foreign inve stemnt in the seed sector and this is detrimental to China's grain security.